Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Jihadi terror wears now a separatist guise in J&K

Jihadi terror wears now a separatist guise in J&K

ET asks Shivraj Patil to go home. In fact, the recommendation should have been: Sonia, go home! She is the empress running the politics of UPA. Rest are chamcha-s who cannot open their mouths without the empress’ approval. So, why ask Shivraj alone to go home, leaving the substitute PM and the empress of 10 Janpath, scot-free?
The source of terror in Hindusthan is the state run by terror-cuddlers thinking that vote-bank politics demands such cuddling. Little do these cuddlers realize that the very-cuddled jihadi terror will consume the cuddlers themselves.

The latest salvo comes on CNN-IBN interview of Aug. 12, 2008 from the Hon’ble Shivraj who says that he has no problems with Kashmir valley traders using the road to Muzaffarabad. Come on, Shivraj, are you the external minister-commerce minister rolled into one? Is the opening of the road a move by Hindusthan to militarily recapture the road and also the occupied portion of J&K occupied by the Pakistan intruders? If so, remove the temporary Art. 370 by a Presidential proclamation and declare the entire J&K (including the regions occupied by Pakistan intruders) an integral part of Hindustan.


The nation is still reeling under the impact of three rounds of serial blasts in quick succession in Jaipur on May 13, 2008, in Bengaluru on July 25 and in Ahmedabad on July 26. The police have been unable to make much headway in the investigations into the Mumbai suburban train blasts of July ,2006, in which about 190 innocent civilians were killed and other terrorist strikes, which have followed one after the other in different parts of the country. The Bharatiya Janata Party-ruled States of Rajasthan, Karnataka and Gujarat have been as clueless in the face of this terrorism as the non-BJP ruled States.
2.There is a huge jihadi iceberg, which has been moving from State to State spreading death and destruction. We have not been able to locate this iceberg, trace its movement and destroy it. We don't even know who are behind the so-called Indian Mujahideen, which has claimed responsibility for many of these terrorist strikes.They have had many failures in the form of unexploded improvised explosive devices (IEDs) --- over 30 of them. The conventional wisdom in investigation is that every failure by the terrorists takes the police one step closer to a successful identification of the terrorists responsible. Over 30 failures --- over 20 of them in Surat in Gujarat-- and yet we are as clueless as ever.Were these failed IEDs examined by a single team? What were their conclusions? No answer.
3. The so-called Indian Mujahideen had sent three E-mail messages claiming responsibility--- two before the explosions took place and one after the explosion. It has been reported by "The Hindu" that one more message purporting to be from the Indian Mujahideen has been received by a newspaper warning of terrorist strikes in Godhra in Gujarat where a group of Hindu pilgrims travelling in a railway compartment were burnt to death by a group of Muslim fanatics in February 2002, which provoked acts of retaliation by sections of the Hindus all over the State. We take pride in the fact that we are a nation of high-class experts in information technology (IT). And yet, we have not been able to make any break-through in our investigation through an examination of these messages.
4.It is ageed by all analysts that one of the objectives of the perpetrators of these blasts in different States of India outside Jammu & Kashmir was to create a divide between the Hindus and the Muslims. Fortunately--- thanks to the prompt action by the concerned State administrations and to the good sense of the two communities--- the terrorists have not succeeded in this objective.
5.But what the terrorists have failed to achieve so far in other parts of India through their repeated acts of terrorism, the Government of India and the BJP have achieved for them in Jammu & Kashmir---- the Government through its shockingly ham-handed handling of a sensitive issue and the BJP by its cynical exploitation of the communal tensions arising from the Government's mishandling for partisan political purposes with an eye on Hindu votes in the next elections, which are expected before next May.
6. Ham-handed handling of vital national security issues has become the defininig characteristics of the Government of India. We have been seeing it again and again since the Mumbai suburban train blasts of July 2006. Important decisions have been taken--- whether relating to Pakistan or China or terrorism--- without examining their implications for national security. Many sensitive issues have been handled in a shockingly inept manner--- thereby giving the impression of its being a Government of novices with very little understanding of such issues.
7.Nothing illustrated its ineptitude more dramatically than the casual manner in which it watched without intervening when the decision to transfer a plot of land to the ownership of a board for the maintenance of a Hindu shrine (Amarnath) in the Muslim-majority Kashmir valley was taken by the local administration headed by the Congress (I) without a proper examination of its likely impact on Muslim public opinion and its likely exploitation by the Muslim radicals and then when the leaders of the Muslim community protested against it,it was cancelled without examining its likely impact on Hindu public opinion in the Hindu majority Jammu Division of the State.
8. The agitation launched by the Hindus of the Jammu Division of the State against the cancellation could have been justified if they had kept it confined to demonstrations and protests. Instead of doing so, they used the agitation for indulging in deplorable acts such as trying to disrupt communications with the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley and allegedly preventing the Muslim farmers of the Valley from sending their produce of fruits to the rest of India for sale.
9. This was a dangerous turn in the agitation and was interpreted by many as an economic blocade of the Muslims in order to force them to concede the demands of the Hindus in relation to the transfer of the land. A similar situation was sought to be created in 1990 by the jihadis in the valley by preventing the fruit farmers and artisans from sending their produce to the rest of India for sale. The Government of V.P.Singh, the then Prime Minister, immediately intervened and had their fruits etc flown from Srinagar to the rest of India at Government's expense in special planes of the Indian Airlines. It also organised Kashmir Trade Fairs in Delhi and other parts of India and helped the Kashmiri farmers and artisans to bring their produce out for sale.
10. One would have expected the Government of India to have promptly acted in a similar manner to break the alleged blocade by the Hindus of Jammu. It did nothing of the sort. It kept fiddling as the situation went from bad to worse. Angered by the inaction of the Government, the fruit farmers, instigated by the Muslim radicals and jihadi terrorists, decided to take their produce to Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir for sale. No Government could have allowed this. The Government's efforts to stop this have led to instances of firing by the security forces on unruly mobs resulting in over 15 deaths.
11. One would have expected the BJP, which aspires to come to power in New Delhi after the next elections, to exercise self-restraint and resist the urge to exploit the situation for partisan political purposes. The expectations have been belied. Its crude attempts to exploit the situation with an eye on the next elections have added oil to fire and are threatening to take J&K back to 1989, when the insurgency started. All the counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism gains of recent years in the State face the danger of being wiped out by the Government's inept handling and the BJP's cynical exploitation of it.
12. In the situation as it is developing in J&K, nobody seems to be interested in national interests and in protecting the lives, property and economic interests of its citizens--- whatever be their religion. Partisan political interests have taken precedence over national interests.
13. Public opinion should force the Government and the BJP to wake up and prevent a slide back to 1989. Otherwise, the Indian Mujahideen, whoever is behind it, and Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence will be having the last laugh. (12-8-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

Read more at...

BJP opposed to opening of Muzaffarabad road route
New Delhi (PTI): The BJP on Tuesday said it is opposed to any move by the government to open up the Muzaffarabad road route to Pakistan for trade "in the present circumstances."
"The party is in favour of normal relations and trade with Pakistan. But in the present circumstances any step by the government to open trade through Muzaffarabad would send wrong signals especially when the separatists are demanding the same," party spokesperson Ravi Shanker Prasad told reporters here.
Stressing that a solution to the problem was possible only through "dialogue", the party reiterated that there has been no economic blockade and the issue has been blown out of proportion by the separatist forces.
"The truck movement in and out of the valley is normal and there is no economic blockade. The separatist forces are trying to blow it out of proportion because they have been caught on the wrong foot on the land issue of Amarnath," Prasad said.
The separatists with the help of some politicians are trying to create a series of blockade while the reality is that daily 400-500 trucks are moving in and out of the valley, he added.
Meanwhile as per sources, BJP feels that the "government is relying on the issue to die down on its own after Yatra which completes on August 17" and is not making "serious efforts to solve the issue."
BJP slams UPA constituents, asks PM to come clean on colleagues
New Delhi, Aug 12 (IANS) The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Monday criticised the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), taking exception to two allies arguing for lifting the ban on the terror outfit SIMI and the People's Democratic Party (PDP) giving a call to Kashmir's fruit growers to cross the Line of Control (LOC).
“Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh and Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Lalu Prasad Yadav have shamefully advocated the lifting of the ban on the SIMI (Students Islamic Movement of India), which is not only anti-national but also follows the philosophy of Taliban,” BJP spokesman Rajiv Pratap Rudy told reporters here.
A tribunal last week ordered lifting the ban on SIMI, though the Supreme Court overturned the ruling.
“Now the PDP has incited people from Kashmir to drive out trucks and cross over to Muzaffarabad (Pakistan-administered Kashmir capital). The present composition of the UPA is hurting national and economical interests of the country,” Rudy said.
Earlier in the day, two people were killed and dozens injured when security forces opened fire at a group of fruit merchants who were trying to march to the LoC, dividing Kashmir, as high tension prevailed in the Kashmir Valley.
Thousands of fruit growers and others, alleging "economic blockade" by protesters in Jammu over the Amarnath land row, had gathered in Sopore, an apple trade centre, and at many places of the valley to walk over to Pakistan-administered Kashmir using the Srinagar-Uri-Muzaffarabad highway.
Violent demonstrations on the Jammu-Srinagar highway had caused disruption in the supply of medicines, food items and other commodities to the valley.
Fruit supplies to other states of India from Kashmir by road, which is the only motorable link to the valley, were also stopped.
“The Amarnath issue is lingering for the past 41 days. The government did not have sense and responsibility to take up the matter early and take necessary action,” Rudy said.
He said the BJP Monday launched its three-day 'jail bharo' or court arrest campaign and its thousands of activists and leaders have been arrested across the country.
He said party leader Vijay Goel and Harsh Vardhan were arrested among other activists for staging protest at Jantar Mantar in the heart of New Delhi. Around 2,000 people were arrested in Rajasthan. The workers were later released on bail.
“Some 3,000 party workers were arrested in Madhya Pradesh. More than 1,000 were arrested in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. While hundreds were arrested in Assam, Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh,” he said.
Rudy said the party could not hold protest in Maharashtra and Jammu due to heavy rains and in Uttarakhand due to panchayat polls.

Mr Shivraj Patil, go home!
29 Jul, 2008, 0536 hrs IST, ET Bureau

NEW DELHI: These are our brothers who have gone astray. We have a duty to bring them back to the family fold. It is only through dialogue that a solution is possible: Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil in the Lok Sabha.

The government had some advance knowledge that such an attack might take place, but what we didn’t have was the place and the time: Shivraj Patil after the Mumbai train blasts.

There is breakthrough in the search for clues. We have sufficient information but we are not going to reveal for the sake of investigations: Shivraj Patil after the Samajhauta blasts The UP government has done their bit. The police have done their bit. The people are vigilant. We have deployed more forces: Shivraj Patil after the Varanasi blasts.

I will not like to name the dangerous outfits. I appreciate people of Rajasthan for showing restraint despite provocation by the perpetrators of violence: Shivraj Patil after the Jaipur blasts.

Afzal Guru... You are asking for the death sentence to be waived for people (the reference is to Sarabjit Singh a death row convict in Pakistan; India says he is a case of mistaken identity and is seeking his pardon) and you are demanding that people from Hindustan should be hanged. What are you doing? You are starting to say that those people should not be hanged and here, you are demanding a hanging: Mr Patil again, drawing a shocking parallel between the Parliament attack convict and the wronged Sarabjit.

These sound bites — a combination of indifference, law enforcement fickleness and reckless tolerance — are the standard fare from the Union home minister each time terror strikes India's hinterland. In the past four years, the home minister or the men in his department tasked with handling the nation's security have rarely opened their eyes to hatred or connected the terror dots. The investigations into the terror attacks have not reached anywhere. And his party's ideological apologism and its reliance on concepts such as "innocent until proven guilty" and "benefit of doubt" offer a free run for the murderous thugs.

The home minister is not the only one aiding this cynical project. Everytime the terrorists target innocents, the leaders of the ruling regime focus on the 'root cause' of the attack. To the regime managers, these are acts of violence by 'our brothers gone astray'. There are also routine calls for compassionate handling of terror crimes. Naturally, there is charge that the government is handcuffing the police at every step of the way.

But nothing seems to shame Shivraj Patil. Not even such numbing statistics as the killings, at last count, of 5,900 people and terror attacks in Jammu and Kashmir, Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Varanasi, Ayodhya, Hyderabad Bangalore and Ahmedabad. He appears to believe that his job ends with making an on-the-spot visit to the site of the terror attack and mouthing few meaningless words.

Already, many in the Congress have begun admitting that sticking with a minister who routinely advertises his cluelessness is plain bad news. In any case when it comes to the government's credibility on national security, the public is not buying it. This just does not augur well for the ruling side.


Self-proclaimed Indian Mujahideen ...
Jihadi terror in Tamil Nadu...
Moorthy Muthuswamy on Frontpage magazine, conducted by Jamie Glazov…
India Terrorism Assessment – 2007
2,765 people died in terrorism-related violence in India during year 2006. A review of the data indicates that nearly 41 per cent of all such fatalities occurred in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) alone as a result of the Pakistan-backed separatist proxy war in that State. 27 per cent resulted from Left Wing Extremism (Maoism/Naxalism) across parts of 14 States, prominently including Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar and Karnataka. 23 per cent of the total fatalities in 2006 occurred in the multiple insurgencies of India’s Northeast.
By comparison, year 2005 witnessed a total of 3,236 fatalities in terrorism-related incidents across the country. The fatality index, consequently, registered a definite decrease in year 2006.
At least 231 of the country’s 608 Districts are currently afflicted, at differing intensities, by various insurgent and terrorist movements. Terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir (affecting 12 of the States 14 Districts), in different States of the Northeast (54 Districts) and Left Wing extremism (affecting at least 165 Districts in 14 States, estimate based on end-2005 data) continue to pose serious challenges to the country’s security framework. In addition, wide areas of the country appear to have ‘fallen off the map’ of good governance, and are acutely susceptible to violent political mobilization, lawlessness and organized criminal activity.
Jammu and Kashmir
Since 2002, terrorism-related fatalities have demonstrated a secular decline in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), and this trend continued in 2006, with a total of 1,116 persons killed. More than 40,000 people have lost their lives in the conflict since 1989, and, even at present, an average of nearly 100 lives is lost each month in J&K.
Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in Jammu and Kashmir

Security Force Personnel
Source: Institute for Conflict Management database.
(Note: Compiled from news reports and is provisional)
Despite the declines in indices of violence, the State continues to suffer from high levels of violence and subversion. Pakistan’s military regime, which was forced to scale down its proxy-war under intense international scrutiny, has nevertheless shown no indication of dismantling the vast infrastructure of terrorism on its soil. According to the Union Home Ministry’s (MHA) "Status Paper on Internal Security Situation" (presented in Parliament on November 30, 2006), the terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir is yet to be dismantled and is being "used by Pak based and Pak ISI sponsored outfits like JeM [Jaish-e-Mohammed], LeT [Lashkar-e-Toiba], Al-Badr, HM [Hizb-ul-Mujahideen], etc."
Amidst the hype on people-to-people contacts and confidence-building measures (CBMs), it is evident that the reduced levels of violence in J&K primarily reflect a tactical rather than strategic shift in the Pakistani calculus, as a two-pronged strategy of parallel talks and terrorism is pursued by the Musharraf regime to secure its ambitions against India.
Talks between India and Pakistan thus continue under the aegis of the Composite Dialogue, even as terrorism in J&K, and sporadically in other parts of the India, persists. At the same time, Pakistan has been complaining bitterly about the slow pace of ‘progress’ towards the goals it seeks to secure on the negotiating table, having failed to achieve these through its vicious campaign of terrorism over 17 years. The peace process, consequently, remains, tactical rather than substantive, as the hiatus between the rival positions on Kashmir remains unbridgeable, and much of the ‘progress’ has been in peripheral areas, such as the restoration of communication links, people-to-people exchanges, Track Two diplomacy and a range of confidence building measures. At the same time, the ground situation in J&K remains a cause for concern, as a stream of infiltrators continues to find its way into the terror wracked State. While the various CBMs currently operational between the two countries may have strengthened processes of 'emotional enlistment', have failed to alter India's and Pakistan's stated positions on the Kashmir issue, or to change the fundamentals of the conflict in and over Kashmir. An end to the bloodshed in the State, consequently, seems as unlikely today as it was at any given point since the dramatic escalation of the militancy in 1989-90.
The Northeast
There has been a marginal improvement in the levels of militancy in the Northeast. While 715 people died in 2005, 627 people were killed in militancy-related violence during 2006.
Nevertheless, certain States of the region have shown remarkable signs of recovery in recent years. Tripura, once considered to be one of the most violent States of the country, recorded 59 insurgency-related fatalities in 2006, down from 75 in 2005, and from a peak of 514 in 2000. Tripura is "carving out a success story in the troubled setting of India’s Northeast, as its Police force reorganizes radically to evolve a counter-insurgency strategy that has left entrenched militant groups in disarray." Building on a "model of a police-led response to terrorism, which saw the country’s most dramatic victory over this modern scourge in Punjab in the early 1990s, Tripura’s Police, under the leadership of its Chief, G.M. Srivastava, has reversed the trajectory of insurgent violence and, crucially, mobilisation… despite continued and vigorous support provided to the insurgent groups by Bangladesh, and the safe haven each of these outfits has been provided in that country."
The gains in Tripura are more than offset by the losses in Manipur, which, at 280 fatalities, now accounts for nearly 45 per cent of the fatalities in the Northeast – with just 5.6 per cent of the region’s population. Manipur thus remains the most violent State in the region, although there is a relative decline in violence, with total fatalities registering a decline from 331 in 2005. While a number of other States in the Northeast have or are being reclaimed from protracted insurgencies, Manipur continues to remain volatile. Large-scale extortion and its impact on ordinary lives, as well as on the lives of people at the helm of affairs in the State, are symptomatic of the virtual collapse of governance in the State.
Assam too remains a disturbed State with 174 deaths in 2006 compared to 242 fatalities in 2005.
Assam, which attracts far greater national attention and accounts for 69 per cent of the population of the Northeast, saw 174 fatalities in 2006, as against 242 in 2005. The militancy in Assam persists despite continuous and successful operations by the Security Forces, with the principal terrorist groups – particularly the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) – finding permanent safe haven and significant state support across the border in Bangladesh.
Nagaland, where a ‘peace process’ has been in place since 1997, saw the third largest number of fatalities in the region in 2006, with 90 dead, overwhelmingly in the fratricidal turf-war between the rival Isak-Muivah and Khaplang factions of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland. Both the militant outfits (NSCN-IM and NSCN-K) are in cease-fire agreements with the Government in Nagaland, but the Government continues been held hostage to the diktats of the insurgent groups. The process of negotiations has been complicated by insurgent groups that have appropriated the attributes of criminal and extortionist gangs, and successfully circumvent the due process of law by their engagement in the negotiation process with the Government.
The fight against insurgency in Meghalaya, Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh remains largely successful.
Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in India's Northeast, 2005-2006

Source: Institute for Conflict Management
(Note: Compiled from news reports and is provisional)
In spite of the Government’s efforts in bringing all militant outfits to the negotiating table, the region continues to remain disturbed. Indeed, ‘peace processes’ that have consistently failed to get to the bottom of the core issues of the conflict, are themselves fraught with problems, producing a rush to enter into unprincipled agreements with particular, with little concern regarding the broader outcome on other groups, and on the region at large. The prevailing orientation to ‘peace processes’ and negotiations with terrorist groups have often "paralyzed the state and have even occasionally undermined the will of elements within the Security Forces to act with determination against terrorism. They have certainly undermined the capacity of the political and administrative leadership to define coherent policies against terrorism, and to implement these consistently."
In spite of the Government’s efforts in bringing all militant outfits to the negotiating table, the region continues to remain disturbed. Indeed, ‘peace processes’ that have consistently failed to get to the bottom of the core issues of the conflict, are themselves fraught with problems, producing a rush to enter into unprincipled agreements with particular, with little concern regarding the broader outcome on other groups, and on the region at large. The prevailing orientation to ‘peace processes’ and negotiations with terrorist groups have often "paralyzed the state and have even occasionally undermined the will of elements within the Security Forces to act with determination against terrorism. They have certainly undermined the capacity of the political and administrative leadership to define coherent policies against terrorism, and to implement these consistently."
The militant groups operating in various States of the Northeast have usually found refuge in neighbouring countries like Bangladesh and Myanmar. Fencing along the 4,096.7 kilometre-long border with Bangladesh, suggested as a remedy to the problem of militancy, has not been completed, leaving ample scope for easy entry and exit by the militants. Similarly, a number of militant groups operating in Assam, Nagaland and Manipur have taken shelter in Myanmar.
Left-Wing Extremism
Accounting for 27 per cent of the total fatalities in India during 2006, Left Wing extremism constitutes what Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh rightly described as the "single biggest internal security challenge" confronting the country. The Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist), today, exercises dominance over a large swathe of the country’s territory, carry out attacks on security forces and symbols of governance at will. Chhattisgarh has now emerged as one of the principal centres of a co-ordinated Maoist movement. Indeed, with 361 fatalities in 2006, Chhattisgarh is the most violent State after Jammu and Kashmir. While the number of Maoist-affected States in the country is currently pegged at 14, the movement has demonstrated the intent and potential to spread across the length and breadth of the country. The Maoist threat has now overtaken all other insurgencies in the country – at least from the perspective of geographical spread, with various levels of Maoist mobilisation and violence currently afflicting at least 165 Districts in 14 States. Over the past years, moreover, while fatalities in various other insurgencies have tended to decline consistently, fatalities related to the Maoist conflict have continuously augmented.
A total of 742 persons died in Maoist-related violence across the country in 2006, up from 717 in 2005. Chhattisgarh in 2006 emerged as the worst affected State – dramatically displacing Andhra Pradesh – and the Dantewada District was by far the worst off within the State.
Fatalities in Maoist Violence, 2005-2006

Andhra Pradesh
West Bengal
Uttar Pradesh
Source: Institute for Conflict Management database
(Note: Compiled from news reports and is provisional)
According to the Union Home Ministry’s Status Paper on Internal Security, the marginal increase in casualties of civilians is mainly due to high violence levels in Chhattisgarh and to some extent in Jharkhand. The paper noted that, "Chhattisgarh alone accounts for 49.30 per cent of total incidents and 59.80 per cent of total casualties in the current year." There is, however, no assessment of the reasons for the decline in violence in other States – other than Andhra Pradesh, where focused Police action has resulted in a flight of the Maoists – and there is reason to believe that the decline in violence is a Maoist decision, rather than any significant gain on the part of the state Forces. Maoist efforts are evidently and increasingly focused on political mobilization and consolidation over wider areas.
According to the Union Home Ministry’s Status Paper on Internal Security, the marginal increase in casualties of civilians is mainly due to high violence levels in Chhattisgarh and to some extent in Jharkhand. The paper noted that, "Chhattisgarh alone accounts for 49.30 per cent of total incidents and 59.80 per cent of total casualties in the current year." There is, however, no assessment of the reasons for the decline in violence in other States – other than Andhra Pradesh, where focused Police action has resulted in a flight of the Maoists – and there is reason to believe that the decline in violence is a Maoist decision, rather than any significant gain on the part of the state Forces. Maoist efforts are evidently and increasingly focused on political mobilization and consolidation over wider areas.
It is useful to recognize, within this context, that the threat of the Maoists is "not limited to the areas of immediate violence, nor does this threat vanish if violence is not manifested at a particular location for a specific period of time. It is in the complex processes of political activity, mass mobilisation, arms training and military consolidation that the Maoist potential has to be estimated." Significantly, the CPI-Maoist has established "Regional Bureaus across a mass of nearly two-thirds of the country's territory, and these regions are further sub-divided into state, special zonal and special area committee jurisdictions, where the processes of mobilisation have been defined and allocated to local leaders. This structure of organisation substantially reflects current Maoist plans, but does not exhaust their perspectives or ambitions. There is further evidence of preliminary activity for the extension of operations to new areas including Gujarat, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir and Meghalaya, beyond what is reflected in the scope of the regional, zonal and state committees." Maoists have also articulated a new strategy to target urban centres in their "Urban Perspective Document", drawing up guidelines for "working in towns and cities", and for the revival of a mobilization effort targeting students and the urban unemployed. Two principal 'industrial belts' have been identified as targets for urban mobilisation: Bhilai-Ranchi-Dhanbad-Calcutta and Mumbai-Pune-Surat-Ahmedabad. Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil told the Lok Sabha (Lower House of Parliament) on December 5, 2006, that Maoists were now planning to target important installations in major cities of India. Patil said "Like forests provide safe hideouts to Naxalites in tribal areas, the cities also provide them cover. Taking advantage of this, they plan to target major installations in cities."
The Maoist menace continues to expand, except where it has been confronted by coherent use of force – as is presently and substantially the case in Andhra Pradesh, where area domination exercise under the leadership of the local Police, backed by the armed reserve forces and the Grey Hounds, and a well-developed intelligence network, have succeeded in beating back the Naxalites to a large extent, and have forced their leadership into flight. The Andhra Pradesh Police has long prepared for this confrontation and has consistently developed its capacities to engage with the Maoists in their ‘strongholds’, though it has been repeatedly inhibited by political constraints from effective action. These constraints appear, for the moment, to have been lifted.
Other States, however, remain far from prepared. Indeed, a consistent feature across all the major Maoist-affected States is that they have extraordinarily poor policing capacities. As against a national average of 122 police personnel per 100,000 population, and some peaceful States with ratios as high as 854/100,000 (Mizoram) and 609/100,000 (Sikkim), Bihar has just 57, Jharkhand – 85, Chhattisgarh – 103 and Orissa – 90, and even Andhra Pradesh, just 98 per 100,000 population. Worse, there is ample evidence that large proportions of the Central allocation for police modernisation and up-gradation remain unspent or are being diverted or mis-spent. Utilization of funds has been particularly poor over the years in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.
Islamist Terrorism outside J&K and the Northeast
At least 270 people died in Islamist terrorist violence in locations outside J&K and the Northeast during 2006. The significant incidents included:
March 7: At least 21 civilians were killed and 62 others injured in three serial bomb explosions at a temple and railway station in Varanasi. Seven bombs were later defused, including four that had been planted on the Gowdolia-Dasashwamedh Ghat Road near the Kashi Vishwanath Temple. Hours after the blasts, a suspected LeT terrorist was shot dead during an encounter with the police in the Gosaiganj area on the outskirts of Lucknow city.
April 14: Two bombs exploded inside the Jama Masjid at Delhi injuring approximately 14 persons, including a woman and a girl.
June 1: Three suspected LeT terrorists were shot dead during an abortive attempt to storm the headquarters of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, a right-wing Hindu organization, at Nagpur in Maharashtra.
July 11: At least 200 persons were killed and over 700 others injured in seven bomb blasts targeting the railway network in the city of Mumbai. First class compartments of local trains at Mira-Bayandhar, Jogeshwari, Mahim, Santacruz, Khar, Matunga and Borivli stations on the Western Railway were targeted.
September 8: Forty people killed and 65 sustain injuries in three bomb explosions at Malegaon town in the Nashik District of Maharashtra.
According to the MHA’s Status Paper, the current strategy of Pakistan-based terrorist groups is to:
· Maintain a continuous flow of finances to sustain the terrorist networks in India
· Target vital installations and economic infrastructure in India
· Recruit and train local modules
· Attack soft targets like market places, public transport system, places of worship and congregation, etc.
· Provoke communal tensions to create a wedge between communities
· Supply hardware through land and sea routes
The Status Paper discloses that the LeT and JeM also use territory and elements in Bangladesh and Nepal for movement of terrorists and finances. Army chief J. J. Singh, on December 27, 2006, stated that "As terrorists are finding it hard to penetrate the fence and new anti-infiltration systems placed all along the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir and in Punjab… The areas bordering Nepal and Bangladesh are still porous and intelligence reports suggest that terrorists are trying to use them to infiltrate into India."
According to data compiled by the Institute for Conflict Management, at least 81 Inter-Services Intelligence-Jihadi modules have been disrupted just over the years 2004-2006, leading to hundreds of arrests across India – outside Jammu and Kashmir and the Northeast – in locations that extend from Uttaranchal in the North, to Andhra Pradesh in the South, and from Gujarat in the West to West Bengal in the East. These modules had been tasked to target security and vital installations, communication links, and commercial and industrial centres, as well as to provoke instability and disorder by circulating large quantities of counterfeit currency and by drug trafficking. The National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan had stated, on July 28, 2006, that Indian security and nuclear installations are under "very serious threat" from the LeT, which may be planning a "major assault".
Worse, terrorist attacks by Pakistan-backed groups have occurred in places as far as Delhi, Mumbai, Malegaon, and Varanasi in 2006. Terrorist attacks in places like Mumbai and Varanasi in 2006 and earlier at Bangalore (December 28, 2005) and New Delhi (October 29, 2005) are only the more visible evidence of a long-term war of attrition by Pakistani state agencies and their jihadi surrogates, intended to undermine India’s political stability, by increasingly attacking its economic, scientific and technological strengths. The frequency, spread and, in some cases, intensity of these operations in other parts of the country has seen some escalation in the past years, as international pressure on Pakistan to end terrorism in J&K has diminished levels of ‘deniable’ engagement in that theatre, and as violence in J&K demonstrates a continuous secular decline since the events of September 11, 2001 in the US.
It is important to note, however, that despite occasional and inevitable terrorist ‘successes’, this relentless strategy – which has targeted virtually every concentration of Muslim populations in India for decades – has overwhelmingly failed to secure a base within the community, beyond a minuscule radical fringe. Further, the record of intelligence and security agency successes against such subversion and terror, although lacking the visibility and drama of a terrorist strike, is immensely greater than the record of the successes of this strategy.


Latest on satp: http://satp.org/satporgtp/latest/index.html

Related links
All links are from: http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/sair/Archives/5_25.htm
· Darkness and Light - - Kanchan Lakshman, SAIR
· Ends and Beginnings -- Ajai Sahni, SAIR
· Populist Follies, Confounded State -- Saji Cherian, SAIR
· Terror, Migrants and Politics -- Bibhu Prasad routray, SAIR
· No Surprises in Bangalore -- Ajai Sahni, SAIR
· Reframing 'Strategic Depth' -- Kanchan Lakshman, SAIR
· Shadow Over the festival of Light -- Ajai Sahni, SAIR
· Belated Adventures -- Bibhu Prasad Routray,SAIR
· Another 'Module' Implodes -- K.P.S. Gill, SAIR
· A Prime Minister Speaks: Finally, a Clear Voice on Terror -- K. P. S. Gill, SAIR
· Maoist Insurgencies: The Eclipse of Governance -- Ajai Sahni, SAIR
· Naxalites: While We Were Sleeping -- Ajai Sahni, SAIR
· "Food for Thought" -- Ajai Sahni, SAIR
· Salvaging a Relationship -- E.N. Rammohan, SAIR
· Bad Medicine for a Red Epidemic -- Ajai Sahni, SAIR
· The Chasm between Rhetoric and Reality -- G. Parthasarathy, SAIR
· Terror and Democratic Resilience -- Kanchan Lakshman, SAIR
· Left Wing Rampage -- Saji Cherian, SAIR
· Terrorism & Legal Policy in India - Saji Cherian, Faultlines
· Pakistan Explores a Political End-Game -- Praveen Swami, SAIR
· Stumbling out of the Bind -- K.P.S. Gill, SAIR
· Mounting Tensions over Illegal Migrants and Terror Bases -- Sanjay K. Jha, SAIR
· Strategic Realignment -- Ajai Sahni, SAIR
· Rare Justice -- Ajai Sahni, SAIR
· Leftist Carnage -- Sanjay K Jha, SAIR
· The Delhi Declaration: Convergence on Terror -- Ajai Sahni, SAIR
· Bihar: Expanding Left-Wing Violence -- Sanjay K. Jha, SAIR
· Running Guns in India's Northeast -- Bibhu Prasad Routray, SAIR
· The Maoist Maze -- Sanjay K. Jha, SAIR
· Anti-terror Law Agitates an Indian Frontier -- Wasbir Hussain, SAIR
· New Theatre of Islamist Terror -- K P S Gill, SAIR
· The Privatisation of Terror -- Sanjay K. Jha, SAIR
· Diplomatic Tourism: Powell in South Asia... Again -- K.P.S. Gill, SAIR
· Combating Organised Crime: A Case Study of Mumbai City - Sumita Sarkar & Arvind Tiwari, Faultlines
· Survey of Conflicts & Resolution in India's Northeast -- Ajai Sahni, Faultlines
· 'Networking' the Northeast: Partners in Terror -- P. V. Ramana, Faultlines
· The Siliguri Corrider: Question Mark on Security-- Pinaki Bhattacharya, Faultlines
· Three Matryoshkas: Ethnicity, Autonomy and Governance -- Sushil K. Pillai, Faultlines
· Violence & Hope in India's Northeast -- S.K. Sinha, Faultlines
· The Terrorist Economy in India's Northeast: Preliminary Explorations -- Ajai Sahni, Faultlines
· Cross-Border Human Traffic in South Asia: Demographic Invasion, Anxiety and Anger in India's Northeast -- Wasbir Hussain, Faultlines
· India and Pakistan in a Quagmire: Superpower Games & Human Tragedies -- Vijendra Singh Jafa, Faultlines
· India's Northeast: Rejuvenating a Conflict-riven Economy -- Gulshan Sachdeva, Faultlines
· The ISI Reaches East: Anatomy of a Conspiracy -- Jaideep Saikia, Faultlines
· An Indian assessment: Low Intensity Conflict & High Intensity Crime -- Prakash Singh, Faultlines
· India: Towards a Political Economy of Intra-State Conflict -- Rakesh Gupta, Faultlines
· 'Naxalism': The Retreat of Civil Governance -- Ajai Sahni, Faultlines
· The Myth of Tranquility -- Mamang Dai, Faultlines
· Ten O'clock to bed: Insouciance in the face of Terror -- Vijendra Singh Jafa, Faultlines
· Contours of Non-military Intervention -- Vijendra Singh Jafa, Faultlines
· Security & Development in India's Northeast: An Alternative Perspective -- Ajai Sahni & J. George, Faultlines
· Terrorism, Institutional Collapse & Emergency Response Protocols -- K.P.S. Gill, Faultlines
· On Justice Delayed -- M.L. Sharma, Faultlines
· Caste, Politics & the Cycle of Strife -- Mammen Matthew, Faultlines
· Counterinsurgency Warfare: The Use & Abuse of Military Force-- Virendra Singh Jafa, Faultlines
· Administrative Policies & Ethnic Disintegration: Engineering Conflict in India's North East -- Vijendra Singh Jafa, Faultline

No comments: